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Whose time to shine?

by James Gibson, 15th April 2010

When Kennedy and Nixon went head-to-head in the first televised debate in the USA in 1960, it proved to be a pivotal point in not only that election campaign, but in electoral history. The vivacious Kennedy, well-rested beforehand, was judged to have beaten a physically weak Nixon, who had just come out of hospital and whose stubble, seen on a black and white TV, made him look gravely ill. This tells us nothing in itself; the fact that the those who had listened on the radio judged Nixon, not Kennedy, to have won, does.

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Kennedy v. Nixon - the importance of image

Image is key, and fifty years on, the three British leaders will be wary. The relative beauty of the candidates is one thing, but the TV can be used to convey certain qualities of the candidate. Nixon’s intellectual strength didn’t come across on television at first, but in the later debates he was judged to have won two out of three. Sixty years later, on Thursday 15th April at 8.30pm, the three British leaders will participate in the first ever debate of its kind on this side of the pond. Negotiators from each party have bashed out a 76 point list of rules for the debates, covering everything from the audience’s make-up to the handshakes at the end. No booing or cheering will be allowed during the debate either. What a chance for the politicians, or so it would seem. The country will be judging the candidates in many respects on the night, but the general demeanor and personality of the men will make all the difference to their success, as it did for Kennedy in 1960.

Cameron is the Conservatives' beaming frontman, Obama-esque in his youth, emotive statements and grand visions.

Cameron, educated at Eton and Brasenose, is the bookies’ favourite and will no doubt be polished in every sense of the word. He is the Conservatives' beaming frontman, Obama-esque in his youth, emotive statements and grand visions (which were, until recently, the closest thing he had to policy). He will be serious, though. ‘Change’, ‘Responsibility’ and ‘Courage’ will be drilled into us. His clean image and promises of ‘change,’ haven't yet translated into the success Obama was starting to experience in January 2008. But Obama was not only someone who emphasised ‘change’, but came with a story of struggle, self-reflection and hope. If Cameron can persuade us that such stories don’t matter, then he’ll do fine.

For Brown, the coming election, which at one point looked unwinable, is back within his grasp.

Squeaky clean Brown is not. The scotsman has long been poked at by the media for his unappealing aesthetics and mannerisms, but these may well be proving to be one of his greatest assets. The slightly dubious bullying allegation at first looked like a political catastrophe. But by not giving the claims the time of day, by getting on with the job and by, most importantly, inadvertently creating the image of a man not to be crossed, he may well have sailed out of the storm stronger. This is not the first time the Prime Minister’s fortunes have turned around; he somehow managed to do the same during the financial crisis with his self-proclaimed strong leadership, during the attempted coups he retained strength despite one-time allies plotting behind his back and now with little long-term public backlash due to the recent allegations, his image as a solid political heavyweight may have been cemented. The coming election, which at one point looked unwinable, is back within his grasp. He can use the debates to show how serious he is, how there is integrity behind his words and how his vast experience is what the country needs.

This is the perfect opportunity for Clegg, is it the LibDem’s time to shine after decades in the shadows?

If Brown is the strong, silent leader, Clegg has to be the silent leader. The Lib Dems are still very much on the perimeter of the political playing field. Rather than the media allowing them to enter the political cat fight which both Labour and the Tories seem so enthusiastic about, Clegg has distanced himself from their tiresome politics. The relatively untainted Lib Dems, with their relatively unknown leader, have the golden chance to present a credible alternative. The debates are the perfect opportunity for Clegg. A good speaker, he mustn't waste this opportunity. He mustn't go too heavy on the criticism, which at the very least must remain general, to ensure that the Tories are lumped together with Labour. Then, the chance is his to present his party as a major contender; is it the Lib Dem’s time to shine after decades in the shadows?

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The debate - make or break for Brown, Cameron and Clegg?

So, what will each of the leaders be looking to show? Cameron needs to focus on policy, be strong, and not look like a sophisticated sound-bite machine, perhaps an impossible task. Brown will undoubtedly be on the back-foot for the majority of the debate, and there is the potential for this to turn into 90mins of Brown bashing, which won’t help anyone. If he lives up to his fierce reputation, dishing out a few quick putdowns (or maybe he should just throw his water at Cameron) whilst brooding in his intellectual aura, he might once again, inexplicably, come out on top. However, it is Clegg who has most to gain, least to lose; despite the fact that the bookies expect him to be the politician to visibly perspire first. He has the chance to be the boy-wonder of the debate with just the right cocktail of intellect, ideas and a cleanliness to do what Kennedy did so well in 1960. Whatever happens, there is no doubt that the debates will play a fundamental role in the election. As Labour’s chief political strategist pointed out, the fallout from each debate could take as much as nine days to clear up, but the images of the leaders in people’s minds will last much longer.

Comments in chronological order

Total: 1

Paul Bryant

Thu 15 Apr 2010 9:45am

"He needs to focus on policy, be strong, and not look like a sophisticated sound-bite machine, perhaps an impossible task."

This is the major danger, and almost inevitable pitfall, of all three candidates. All the candidates have been taking part in practice debates with stand-ins for the other two. Anyone who saw the recent documentary on the BBC about TV Debates (repeated on Saturday night) would have been as tickled as I was by the sight of Gerald Ford practicing in response to a TV showing clips from Jimmy Carter's interviews. All this practice means that my main fear for these debates is that they will largely be pre-scripted. My main hope is that the structure means that it is mostly the immediate answer sections that are pre-scripted. After all, the format works such that after the immediate individual responses there is a period of free debate. I hope that in these sections we see some spontaneity and, just maybe, genuineness shining through the cloud of well-rehearsed lines.

Take Cameron's recent worries about the length of time spent on each question. I think that this reveals an already quite apparent superficiality. The Obama comparison does not hold entirely true. Obama was a master of grand rhetoric, but also very able at dissecting individual policy. Any voters looking across the pond will also be able to see that it's on the individual policy that Obama has been delivering, not his impossibly ambitious grand rhetoric. Especially when it comes to economic issues, Cameron may be extremely weak on the specifics.

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